What Do You Think Will Happen???

What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:20 pm

Because we don't really know, all we can do is assign probabilities to various outcomes. So - here goes.
1. AK and RS both convicted and affirmed by SC. Extradition sought and obtained for AK. They both serve sentences in Italian prison. 20%
2. Same as #1 but AK serves sentence in US prison. 5%
3. Same as #1 but after Italy seeks extradition, the US refuses it. 5%
4. Same as #1 but Italy never seeks extradition. 5%
5. Same as #1, but somehow the result is reversed at a higher level (ECHR, rehearing, etc.). 10%
6. SC outright reverses the convictions and ends the case. 10%
7. SC remands the case for further proceedings and AK and RS are ultimately acquitted. 35%
8. SC remands the case and AK and RS are ultimately convicted. 10%

I am not dealing with the prospect that there are different verdicts for AK and RS because I think that, while theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely. If you sum up the probabilities, I am up in the air about the next step - 45% chance of an affirmation of the conviction, 10% chance of an outright acquittal and 45% chance of a remand. If it is remanded, I think that the likelihood of ultimate acquittal gets pretty high.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Mafiabuster » Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:25 pm

I know option 7 is the most desired one, however, I really don't think it will happen.

I go for option 3. The USA will never deport AK. I know Amanda has it in her to fight this, and she will, I am sure. Once she explains her story to Obama, he will make sure it doesn't happen.

I hope Amanda has written to Obama, John Kerry and Hilary Clinton, or will do if the verdict is confirmed on Wednesday.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Alex_K » Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:07 pm

I wouldn't expect anything good from Italy's top court. It's both a partisan and a corporate issue. The "red judges" (like Nencini) in their virulent "antiberlusconismo" hate the US in general, Knox because of Rocco Girlanda's involvement, and Sollecito because of Bongiorno; they are strong and will hardly budge. Plus, the judges and magistrates as a corporation look after their own and expel and punish dissenters, like Hellmann. A lot will depend on the personalities involved on March 25 though.

The rest is too hard to call.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Zrausch » Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:39 pm

It seems baffling to me that the very court which went completely out of its way to overturn a perfectly sane and conclusive verdict, reigniting an international scandal for no reason, wouldn't see their dirty work through to the bitter end. I vote two rubber stamped convictions.

Edit to add: But I don't believe Amanda will be arrested/extradited. This was always my opinion because I figure level headed people in the State Department can see that the crime was clearly committed by somebody else and the case against Amanda makes no sense, plus it was recently revealed by Newsweek that a source inside the State Department says there's no chance of an extradition.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Sarah » Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:17 pm

Putting my guess out there.

1. They confirm guilt. Raffaele goes to jail perhaps altered by ECHR. Amanda's extradition is either not requested or denied.
2. They release Raffaele and confirm guilt for Amanda only. Again Amanda's extradition either not requested or denied.
3. They will acquit both of them. Caso Chiuso
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:44 pm

I recommend that if it goes badly, it is time for all of us to write physical letters to the US State Department.
This is a case where emails will not do.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:02 pm

Alex_K wrote:I wouldn't expect anything good from Italy's top court. It's both a partisan and a corporate issue. The "red judges" (like Nencini) in their virulent "antiberlusconismo" hate the US in general, Knox because of Rocco Girlanda's involvement, and Sollecito because of Bongiorno; they are strong and will hardly budge. Plus, the judges and magistrates as a corporation look after their own and expel and punish dissenters, like Hellmann. A lot will depend on the personalities involved on March 25 though.

The rest is too hard to call.



I tend to agree. BUT........1. there is always a reluctance to be the one to sign the order which will actually result in punishment in a case in which many people must, deep down, harbor doubts - everyone but the last appellate judge can rationalize his actions away by saying to himself ("If I am wrong I can always be reversed on appeal"), 2. there may also be an interest in "cleaning things up" (remanding for a new court to put together a more persuasive and internally consistent narrative which will serve as stronger ammunition in the extradition battle that they know will be coming up), 3. the politics are hard to read and I am not sure but I get an inkling that the current government is not crazy about the gargantuan legal bureaucracy, 4. the media has been running pretty negative for the prosecution side, and 5. the Nencini opinion really is ludicrous and embarrassing and may make the extradition fight harder than it has to be.
Even after all of this I get to only 45% for remand and I still believe that there is a 45% chance of an order completely affirming the result below.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Zrausch » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:15 pm

I would normally agree with you erasmus, and do hope you're correct. But overturning Hellmann was a monumental act of stupidity and willful corruption. I would be very impressed if the very same court responsible could pull off anything constructive.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:34 pm

Zrausch wrote:I would normally agree with you erasmus, and do hope you're correct. But overturning Hellmann was a monumental act of stupidity and willful corruption. I would be very impressed if the very same court responsible could pull off anything constructive.



The Supreme Court of Italy is not like the SC of the USA. It is not the same group of judges on each case. There are many many judges who can be involved and it all depends on who is assigned to a particular panel. I would love to know the process for assigning judges to panels and understand the bureaucratic politics better because that is what this is all about. However, it is interesting that - even last time with what turned out to be a very unreasonable panel - they did not simply set aside Hellmann and reinstate Massei but instead sent it back for more consideration. Of course, everything depends on who gets assigned to the panel.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Numbers » Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:13 pm

erasmus44 wrote:Because we don't really know, all we can do is assign probabilities to various outcomes. So - here goes.
1. AK and RS both convicted and affirmed by SC. Extradition sought and obtained for AK. They both serve sentences in Italian prison. 20%
2. Same as #1 but AK serves sentence in US prison. 5%
3. Same as #1 but after Italy seeks extradition, the US refuses it. 5%
4. Same as #1 but Italy never seeks extradition. 5%
5. Same as #1, but somehow the result is reversed at a higher level (ECHR, rehearing, etc.). 10%
6. SC outright reverses the convictions and ends the case. 10%
7. SC remands the case for further proceedings and AK and RS are ultimately acquitted. 35%
8. SC remands the case and AK and RS are ultimately convicted. 10%

I am not dealing with the prospect that there are different verdicts for AK and RS because I think that, while theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely. If you sum up the probabilities, I am up in the air about the next step - 45% chance of an affirmation of the conviction, 10% chance of an outright acquittal and 45% chance of a remand. If it is remanded, I think that the likelihood of ultimate acquittal gets pretty high.


I think you are looking at this in the right way, as a matter of probabilities, but we can only guess what the probabilities are! We do know that the CSC panel of judges, headed by Judge Bruno, that will hear the case on March 25, 2015 is from Section 5 of the Criminal Division, and are different individuals than the panel from Section 1 of the Criminal Division that heard the prosecution appeal from the Hellmann verdict. That panel was headed by Judge Chieffi.

I think the choices could be simplified by looking at the probabilities of the CSC judgment (which may not be a verdict, but a referral) and of the possible extradition of Amanda separately. Here is my list of what the CSC may do:

1. Finalize the Nencini court verdict.
2. Annul the Nencini court verdict and refer the case to a 3rd trial at a 2nd level court. This does not mean that the CSC would necessarily be in favor of innocence, but they might be embarrassed by the many logical and factual errors in the Nencini court motivation report and want an improved one.
3. Refer the case to a United Sections panel of judges (9 from different sections, rather than 5 from one section). The CSC would do this if they felt that the complexity of the case and of the evaluation of the evidence required some broader thinking, and that there may be some conflict of law in the case. The United Sections panel would then take some long time to evaluate the case and, hopefully, decide that Amanda and Raffaele are innocent based on the evidence and/or that their procedural rights were violated and a 3rd 2nd-level trial is required.
4. Annul the Nencini verdict and acquit Amanda and Raffaele.

I can't honestly assign probabilities to items #1-4; perhaps they are all equally probable.

If the CSC does finalize the Nencini court verdict, I believe that the Italian government will ask for her extradition, but that the US government will refuse. Again, I don't know the probability of this sequence of events, but my personal bias is that it is essential 100% probable that the US would not extradite Amanda. But I do fear that in the case of finalizing Nencini, there is essentially a 100% probability that Raffaele would be imprisoned. So I hope that scenerio 3 or 4 is what really happens.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby raven1955 » Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:27 pm

I hope the verdict is in favor of Raffaele and Amanda. But my fear is that the probability of the judges backing each other is higher than the probability of being honest and truly following the law. My fear is behind the scenes action by probably Judge Cheiffi and the prosecution team yo put pressure on Judge Bruno and his panel.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby LarryK » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:05 am

I think the original #1 is overestimated and #3-4-5 are underestimated.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:48 am

I thin #2 is pretty much impossible with #3 about 70% likely
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:15 am

Desert Fox wrote:I thin #2 is pretty much impossible with #3 about 70% likely



I am less optimistic than most on the US refusing extradition. Part of me looks at this and says that the Italian bureaucracy will surely stick together and convict, the Italian government will surely seek extradition, and the USA, confronted with a murder conviction from a country with a modern legal system and with whom we have an extradition treaty and whose cooperation we will need to obtain extradition on a regular basis will grant extradition. But another part of me says that, somehow, somewhere, something will happen which will derail the locomotive and this will never happen. This is why I put the probability of a ruling affirming Nencini at only 45%. But it is a tough one to handicap.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby anonshy » Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:11 am

erasmus44 wrote:
Zrausch wrote:I would normally agree with you erasmus, and do hope you're correct. But overturning Hellmann was a monumental act of stupidity and willful corruption. I would be very impressed if the very same court responsible could pull off anything constructive.



The Supreme Court of Italy is not like the SC of the USA. It is not the same group of judges on each case. There are many many judges who can be involved and it all depends on who is assigned to a particular panel. I would love to know the process for assigning judges to panels and understand the bureaucratic politics better because that is what this is all about. However, it is interesting that - even last time with what turned out to be a very unreasonable panel - they did not simply set aside Hellmann and reinstate Massei but instead sent it back for more consideration. Of course, everything depends on who gets assigned to the panel.


Look at Hellmann's latest comments, He make it very clear that there are distinct political groupings inside the Italian justice system, and you are either part of that group or you are gone! Hellmann committed career suicide by going against the original decision. We can hope that there are some Hellmann's on the united section but I don't hold out any hope.

"Hellmann’s ruling cost him. He had been in line to be chief magistrate in Perugia but was savaged for his decision and retired. The chief high court prosecutor suggested Hellmann was delusional. The judge, he complained, had “lost the plot.”

"Hellmann blames self-protection among the fraternity of magistrates (the civic category to which both judges and prosecutors belong) for the current conundrum. “It was simpler and more useful career-wise to convict them,” he says of his fellow judges. “You need to be within the system to understand. The magistratura is a sect. I never really got involved with the politics within it. I was just the kind of judge who did his work and that's it. Inside the system, there are parties, and if you are not part of one of them, you are out of the game.”

To be part of the ISC it would reason that you would have to be the type to "Play Ball" to advance to a higher position.

I am still hoping for a miracle at this point, Hoping that somone with authority in Italy will speak out against this injustice. It is proven the justice system is incapable of controlling itself. I understand the need for the judiciary to be independant in Italy due to vast corruption from external forces, but when the corruption stems from the justice system itself, there is no hope!

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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby analemma » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:13 pm

Nothing that Italy has done in the last two years leaves me with ANY doubt that the ISC will approve the Nencini court verdict.
The magistratura has shown no hesitation in disregarding the honor of Italy, principles of impartial justice, and even common sense in their quest to whitewash this self serving brotherhood in front of the whole world.
Anonshy said it all in "when the corruption stems from the justice system itself, there is no hope!"
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:26 pm

erasmus44 wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:I thin #2 is pretty much impossible with #3 about 70% likely

I am less optimistic than most on the US refusing extradition. Part of me looks at this and says that the Italian bureaucracy will surely stick together and convict, the Italian government will surely seek extradition, and the USA, confronted with a murder conviction from a country with a modern legal system and with whom we have an extradition treaty and whose cooperation we will need to obtain extradition on a regular basis will grant extradition. But another part of me says that, somehow, somewhere, something will happen which will derail the locomotive and this will never happen. This is why I put the probability of a ruling affirming Nencini at only 45%. But it is a tough one to handicap.


I think if push comes to shove, there will be a court decision that she was subject to double jeopardy. After all, the Italian legal system works that you can just keep tossing a trial back down until you get a guilty verdict.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Clive Wismayer » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:35 pm

erasmus44 wrote:Because we don't really know, all we can do is assign probabilities to various outcomes. So - here goes.
1. AK and RS both convicted and affirmed by SC. Extradition sought and obtained for AK. They both serve sentences in Italian prison. 20%
2. Same as #1 but AK serves sentence in US prison. 5%
3. Same as #1 but after Italy seeks extradition, the US refuses it. 5%
4. Same as #1 but Italy never seeks extradition. 5%
5. Same as #1, but somehow the result is reversed at a higher level (ECHR, rehearing, etc.). 10%
6. SC outright reverses the convictions and ends the case. 10%
7. SC remands the case for further proceedings and AK and RS are ultimately acquitted. 35%
8. SC remands the case and AK and RS are ultimately convicted. 10%

I am not dealing with the prospect that there are different verdicts for AK and RS because I think that, while theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely. If you sum up the probabilities, I am up in the air about the next step - 45% chance of an affirmation of the conviction, 10% chance of an outright acquittal and 45% chance of a remand. If it is remanded, I think that the likelihood of ultimate acquittal gets pretty high.

Hope springs eternal and all that and the back room shenanigans in Italy certainly offer room for it. I go for the decision being 99% due to politics, face-saving, internecine struggles, bribery, corruption etc and 1% due to justice, whichever way they decide.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:04 pm

I am probably more optimistic than most on the merits in Italy and much less optimistic than most on extradition. If she is convicted and Italy seeks extradition, I put the probability of a denial at 20% (on reflection this may be a bit low but I definitely believe it is below 50%).
My thinking on extradition is that we have good relations with Italy and Italy is a modern country with "Western" standards for its legal system. We do not want them to second guess us when we render a verdict and seek extradition and so we will be reluctant to second guess them.
On double jeopardy, the mere fact that a guilty verdict is overturned on appeal and then that appeal is, in turn, reversed by a higher court does not constitute double jeopardy. In fact, it happens in our system (e.g., the Jeffrey McDonald case). What may create an argument here is that the Hellmann stage of the proceedings was not merely an appeal but was actually a new trial with live witness testimony and findings of fact and, after such a trial and an acquittal, a successful double jeopardy argument could be made in our system. On the other hand, we recognize that other legal systems are different and the mere fact that you couldn't do it that way in the USA does not necessarily create an argument against extradition.
I personally think that two other arguments are stronger: 1. the refusal to turn over the DNA data files and 2. the use of findings of fact from the Guede trial in this trial. The first will strike American lawyers as bizarre and will undermine confidence in the crucial DNA evidence. The second involves a blatant denial of due process and procedural rights and will strike American lawyers as absolutely outrageous. Whether it is enough to support a denial of extradition is a tough call, but it is possible that it will rise to that level.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:24 pm

The issue is that Amanda was tried in front of a jury the second time and found not guilty not that a judge reversed a conviction. A judge and a jury are too different issues here.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Zrausch » Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:57 pm

erasmus44 wrote:I am probably more optimistic than most on the merits in Italy and much less optimistic than most on extradition. If she is convicted and Italy seeks extradition, I put the probability of a denial at 20% (on reflection this may be a bit low but I definitely believe it is below 50%).
My thinking on extradition is that we have good relations with Italy and Italy is a modern country with "Western" standards for its legal system. We do not want them to second guess us when we render a verdict and seek extradition and so we will be reluctant to second guess them.
On double jeopardy, the mere fact that a guilty verdict is overturned on appeal and then that appeal is, in turn, reversed by a higher court does not constitute double jeopardy. In fact, it happens in our system (e.g., the Jeffrey McDonald case). What may create an argument here is that the Hellmann stage of the proceedings was not merely an appeal but was actually a new trial with live witness testimony and findings of fact and, after such a trial and an acquittal, a successful double jeopardy argument could be made in our system. On the other hand, we recognize that other legal systems are different and the mere fact that you couldn't do it that way in the USA does not necessarily create an argument against extradition.
I personally think that two other arguments are stronger: 1. the refusal to turn over the DNA data files and 2. the use of findings of fact from the Guede trial in this trial. The first will strike American lawyers as bizarre and will undermine confidence in the crucial DNA evidence. The second involves a blatant denial of due process and procedural rights and will strike American lawyers as absolutely outrageous. Whether it is enough to support a denial of extradition is a tough call, but it is possible that it will rise to that level.


You don't find the Newsweek source credible?

From the article:

A State Department source tells Newsweek that diplomats in both Italy and the U.S. expect an extradition request to be denied: “I don’t think either Italy or the U.S. wants a major burr under our saddle in terms of relationships between our countries, and this would be that, if the Italians pushed it.” If they do, the source adds, there “is not any way” the U.S. will arrest Knox, nor will it have her declared a fugitive.


Also another article claims to have a source as well, unknown if it's the same one:

A source at the State Department said: “There is a feeling that the whole case is fl awed and that a US citizen should not have to go to jail because of that. If there is an extradition request from Italy it will be denied.”
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:45 pm

Desert Fox wrote:The issue is that Amanda was tried in front of a jury the second time and found not guilty not that a judge reversed a conviction. A judge and a jury are too different issues here.


I think that the fact that there was a jury is important but in the United States, jeopardy would attach even after a bench trial (a trial before a judge without a jury). The key is that it be a trial rather than what our system treats as an appeal. A trial involves swearing witnesses, hearing witness testimony and finding facts. In that sense, the Hellmann proceedings look like a trial and it could be argued that, once acquitted in this kind of proceeding, AK could not be retried or convicted.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:48 pm

Zrausch wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:I am probably more optimistic than most on the merits in Italy and much less optimistic than most on extradition. If she is convicted and Italy seeks extradition, I put the probability of a denial at 20% (on reflection this may be a bit low but I definitely believe it is below 50%).
My thinking on extradition is that we have good relations with Italy and Italy is a modern country with "Western" standards for its legal system. We do not want them to second guess us when we render a verdict and seek extradition and so we will be reluctant to second guess them.
On double jeopardy, the mere fact that a guilty verdict is overturned on appeal and then that appeal is, in turn, reversed by a higher court does not constitute double jeopardy. In fact, it happens in our system (e.g., the Jeffrey McDonald case). What may create an argument here is that the Hellmann stage of the proceedings was not merely an appeal but was actually a new trial with live witness testimony and findings of fact and, after such a trial and an acquittal, a successful double jeopardy argument could be made in our system. On the other hand, we recognize that other legal systems are different and the mere fact that you couldn't do it that way in the USA does not necessarily create an argument against extradition.
I personally think that two other arguments are stronger: 1. the refusal to turn over the DNA data files and 2. the use of findings of fact from the Guede trial in this trial. The first will strike American lawyers as bizarre and will undermine confidence in the crucial DNA evidence. The second involves a blatant denial of due process and procedural rights and will strike American lawyers as absolutely outrageous. Whether it is enough to support a denial of extradition is a tough call, but it is possible that it will rise to that level.


You don't find the Newsweek source credible?

From the article:

A State Department source tells Newsweek that diplomats in both Italy and the U.S. expect an extradition request to be denied: “I don’t think either Italy or the U.S. wants a major burr under our saddle in terms of relationships between our countries, and this would be that, if the Italians pushed it.” If they do, the source adds, there “is not any way” the U.S. will arrest Knox, nor will it have her declared a fugitive.


Also another article claims to have a source as well, unknown if it's the same one:

A source at the State Department said: “There is a feeling that the whole case is fl awed and that a US citizen should not have to go to jail because of that. If there is an extradition request from Italy it will be denied.”



This is very encouraging but it should not be taken as dispositive. From a diplomatic point of view, this would be a "burr" which neither country needs right now. One of the easiest ways to avoid it would be for the SC to remand and conduct further proceedings below over a number of years until the whole thing simmers down to a low boil.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:01 pm

erasmus44 wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:The issue is that Amanda was tried in front of a jury the second time and found not guilty not that a judge reversed a conviction. A judge and a jury are too different issues here.


I think that the fact that there was a jury is important but in the United States, jeopardy would attach even after a bench trial (a trial before a judge without a jury). The key is that it be a trial rather than what our system treats as an appeal. A trial involves swearing witnesses, hearing witness testimony and finding facts. In that sense, the Hellmann proceedings look like a trial and it could be argued that, once acquitted in this kind of proceeding, AK could not be retried or convicted.


There are of course other issues such as not being able to confront her accusers

Edit: Should not that I still recommend writing physical letters to the department of state because I do expect that it will have an effect.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby kermit the frog » Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:24 pm

You have to consider that the case has become a hot potato that is still heating up. Everybody in the Italian judiciary would throw it away to another person as fast as he could to minimize the burning of his own hands. :D

Not sure what that means though in Bruno's situation. Probably nothing good.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Mafiabuster » Mon Mar 23, 2015 5:43 pm

kermit the frog wrote:You have to consider that the case has become a hot potato that is still heating up. Everybody in the Italian judiciary would throw it away to another person as fast as he could to minimize the burning of his own hands. :D

Not sure what that means though in Bruno's situation. Probably nothing good.


What's absolutely bonkers is that there is a way out for the Italian courts. They know that AK and RS are innocent and they have made a terrible mistake, but they could save their faces (and their arses) by refusing last year's guilty verdict and having another trial that acquits the pair. It's a win/win solution: the guilty person is serving time, the innocent go free all within the usual procedure and system of the Italian courts. Nobody looks bad and Italian justice has worked.

However, it looks like they will foolishly choose to uphold the verdicts and end up looking like a bunch of dumbasses on the international stage.

Losers! :facepalm:
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:14 pm

kermit the frog wrote:You have to consider that the case has become a hot potato that is still heating up. Everybody in the Italian judiciary would throw it away to another person as fast as he could to minimize the burning of his own hands. :D

Not sure what that means though in Bruno's situation. Probably nothing good.



It means that there is a significant probability that they will kick it back for further hearings - probably identifying some uncertainties, inconsistencies, areas for further investigation, etc. As a result, the judges on this panel will never be remembered as having rendered the final verdict in the case. They will hope that something will happen which will get them all off the hook. If they think AK and RS are really guilty, they will hope one of them confesses. If they are not sure, they will hope RG comes out and tells the truth. They will hope that the passage of time alone makes this a less newsworthy case. I still think this is only about 50/50 but I think it is possible and it should be considered positive for the defense (especially in comparison with the most likely alternative).
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Alex_K » Tue Mar 24, 2015 12:18 am

kermit the frog wrote:You have to consider that the case has become a hot potato that is still heating up. Everybody in the Italian judiciary would throw it away to another person as fast as he could to minimize the burning of his own hands. :D

Not sure what that means though in Bruno's situation. Probably nothing good.


BTW in the Marta Russo case, it was the 1st division that threw out the original guilty verdict. A retrial and another manslaughter verdict followed. Then the 5th division had to take the case. They confirmed the convictions for the two principal suspects and acquitted a third defendant. BUT the longest sentence was only five years and four months; the SC ruled in Dec. 13 and the guy was out of jail in April 14, in just four month. It was not about 25 or 28 years; in terms of human suffering inflicted, obviously the two accused scholars were branded for life but they were able to return to teaching pretty soon and were not sent down to rot for 25 years.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Teddy » Tue Mar 24, 2015 12:54 am

Frank Sfarzo is quoted as giving 80% possibility of acquittal in the recent daily Mail article. What he says in that article is important - that nobody in Italy seems to believe any more that Raffaele is guilty, and their not-so-subtle separation from Amanda has worked in the Italian mindset. There has been a very positive run-in with Peter Gill explaining DNA to Italy, all of Quarto Grado's guests certain of Raffaele's innocence, the juror coming out, and so on. I don't have 80% confidence but I will predict: 60% Raffaele acquitted or sent back to a new appeal. 20% for Amanda. I think there really is a strong possibility of receiving separate outcomes - it doesn't matter how ridiculous that conclusion is - we know they are not applying logic.
Amanda Knox: "According to Mignini, we found Meredith at the villa and said, Hey, that stupid bitch. Let’s show Meredith. Let’s get her to play a sex game. I was horrified. Who thinks like that?".... indeed, who thinks like that?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Mafiabuster » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:13 am

Teddy wrote:Frank Sfarzo is quoted as giving 80% possibility of acquittal in the recent daily Mail article. What he says in that article is important - that nobody in Italy seems to believe any more that Raffaele is guilty,and their not-so-subtle separation from Amanda has worked in the Italian mindset. There has been a very positive run-in with Peter Gill explaining DNA to Italy, all of Quarto Grado's guests certain of Raffaele's innocence, the juror coming out, and so on. I don't have 80% confidence but I will predict: 60% Raffaele acquitted or sent back to a new appeal. 20% for Amanda. I think there really is a strong possibility of receiving separate outcomes - it doesn't matter how ridiculous that conclusion is - we know they are not applying logic.


:jaw-dropping: What separation? Raffaele has been very supportive of Amanda, and has said that he is sure that she is innocent in all his recent interviews.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Annella » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:54 am

Mafiabuster wrote:
Teddy wrote:Frank Sfarzo is quoted as giving 80% possibility of acquittal in the recent daily Mail article. What he says in that article is important - that nobody in Italy seems to believe any more that Raffaele is guilty,and their not-so-subtle separation from Amanda has worked in the Italian mindset. There has been a very positive run-in with Peter Gill explaining DNA to Italy, all of Quarto Grado's guests certain of Raffaele's innocence, the juror coming out, and so on. I don't have 80% confidence but I will predict: 60% Raffaele acquitted or sent back to a new appeal. 20% for Amanda. I think there really is a strong possibility of receiving separate outcomes - it doesn't matter how ridiculous that conclusion is - we know they are not applying logic.


:jaw-dropping: What separation? Raffaele has been very supportive of Amanda, and has said that he is sure that she is innocent in all his recent interviews.


You may need to delve a little deeper mafiabuster.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Teddy » Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:02 am

Mafiabuster wrote:
Teddy wrote:Frank Sfarzo is quoted as giving 80% possibility of acquittal in the recent daily Mail article. What he says in that article is important - that nobody in Italy seems to believe any more that Raffaele is guilty,and their not-so-subtle separation from Amanda has worked in the Italian mindset. There has been a very positive run-in with Peter Gill explaining DNA to Italy, all of Quarto Grado's guests certain of Raffaele's innocence, the juror coming out, and so on. I don't have 80% confidence but I will predict: 60% Raffaele acquitted or sent back to a new appeal. 20% for Amanda. I think there really is a strong possibility of receiving separate outcomes - it doesn't matter how ridiculous that conclusion is - we know they are not applying logic.


:jaw-dropping: What separation? Raffaele has been very supportive of Amanda, and has said that he is sure that she is innocent in all his recent interviews.

He has been very vague, but it's not just about what Raffaele says, but also about what his lawyers, family and friends are saying here in Italy.
Amanda Knox: "According to Mignini, we found Meredith at the villa and said, Hey, that stupid bitch. Let’s show Meredith. Let’s get her to play a sex game. I was horrified. Who thinks like that?".... indeed, who thinks like that?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby LarryK » Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:37 am

Regarding extradition, I hope Amanda's lawyers aren't putting all their eggs in the double jeopardy basket. That aspect of the verdict would be consistent with Italian law and procedures. They need to focus where Italian law was broken, such as: Amanda not getting to meet with a lawyer until just before her first court date (including that abomination of an interrogation.) The ruling of the judgment of the Guede trial against her as being final when she wasn't represented there. The denial of the DNA data files to the defense team. How her "confession" was used after the Supreme Court said it couldn't be used in her criminal trial. How Guede avoided being cross-examined about his testimony against them. The media campaign against her, all visible to the jury. And so on.... Anything that can be used in an appeal to the ECHR can also be used to fight extradition. (And the Italian judges must know that the ECHR is looming over them if they deliver a final guilty verdict.)
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:51 am

LarryK wrote:Regarding extradition, I hope Amanda's lawyers aren't putting all their eggs in the double jeopardy basket. That aspect of the verdict would be consistent with Italian law and procedures. They need to focus where Italian law was broken, such as: Amanda not getting to meet with a lawyer until just before her first court date (including that abomination of an interrogation.) The ruling of the judgment of the Guede trial against her as being final when she wasn't represented there. The denial of the DNA data files to the defense team. How her "confession" was used after the Supreme Court said it couldn't be used in her criminal trial. How Guede avoided being cross-examined about his testimony against them. The media campaign against her, all visible to the jury. And so on.... Anything that can be used in an appeal to the ECHR can also be used to fight extradition. (And the Italian judges must know that the ECHR is looming over them if they deliver a final guilty verdict.)



I agree. I am not optimistic about the double jeopardy argument although I think it should be made. I think that the use of the Guede filings and the failure to turn over DNA data files will be perceived by most American lawyers as absolutely outrageous. These things both go to the reliability of the finding of guilt and make it much more likely that the finding was defective. If I were arguing it, I would use the double jeopardy argument as a platform to lay out the Hellmann verdict in detail before a US court so that they could see exactly why an Italian court found her innocent. If a US court thinks she is really innocent, it will be much more likely to find a procedural reason to deny extradition.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:07 am

Teddy wrote:Frank Sfarzo is quoted as giving 80% possibility of acquittal in the recent daily Mail article. What he says in that article is important - that nobody in Italy seems to believe any more that Raffaele is guilty, and their not-so-subtle separation from Amanda has worked in the Italian mindset. There has been a very positive run-in with Peter Gill explaining DNA to Italy, all of Quarto Grado's guests certain of Raffaele's innocence, the juror coming out, and so on. I don't have 80% confidence but I will predict: 60% Raffaele acquitted or sent back to a new appeal. 20% for Amanda. I think there really is a strong possibility of receiving separate outcomes - it doesn't matter how ridiculous that conclusion is - we know they are not applying logic.




This is interesting. I have always thought that the forensic evidence - while not really probative against either of them - was, from the point of view of the Italian prosecutors, stronger against RS than against AK - 1. making the heroic and wrong assumption that the DNA on the knife is valid (and I realize that the assumption is wrong) all the knife shows is that it may have been used in the crime by someone and at some time AK may have used it (perfectly plausible that she used it to cut bread after the crime ); 2 the bra clasp (for what it is worth (very little or nothing) evidence against RS but not against AK); and 3. the bathmat footprint again, for what it is worth (again little or nothing) evidence against RS but not AK. On the other hand, RS had absolutely no contact with RG prior to the crime while AK was at least acquainted with him. It is like comparing my wife and I as suspects in the Jon Benet Ramsey case - in each case, a minuscule probability of guilt but my probability is likely somewhat higher (1 in 50 billion rather than 1 in 10 trillion) because I traveled more often and had visited Boulder in the past and would be familiar with the area.
If they acquit RS and convict AK, it will be interesting to explore the rationale they use but it will probably strengthen the case against extradition.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Lince » Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:52 am

My feeling is that (50%) SC rubber-stamps the conviction, a prolonged legal battle for extradition starts, which is, hopefully, interrupted by a reversal at higher level (ECHR?). Or, (50%) SC tries to avoid responsibility by returning the case for a new trial, and all this insanity is perpetuated further. What is the longest case tried and retried in Italy?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby lookinglass » Tue Mar 24, 2015 12:11 pm

Rafaelle aquitted, Amanda convicted but never extradited.

Why? Italians are grossly sentimental and Raffaelle has shown he is innocent because he didn't run away, good Italian boy. Amanda is American.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Alex_K » Tue Mar 24, 2015 12:33 pm

Lince wrote:My feeling is that (50%) SC rubber-stamps the conviction, a prolonged legal battle for extradition starts, which is, hopefully, interrupted by a reversal at higher level (ECHR?). Or, (50%) SC tries to avoid responsibility by returning the case for a new trial, and all this insanity is perpetuated further. What is the longest case tried and retried in Italy?


Edward Luttwak wrote in The London Review of Books (probably paywalled):

...almost anyone can be accused of ‘association’, including the slew of former Christian Democrat politicians who have been charged and prosecuted. The most prominent Sicilian politician, the former minister (multiple times) and later senator Calogero Mannino was tried several times on that charge before his case finally reached the country’s highest court, the Cassazione. Each time he was found innocent the prosecutors appealed, and then kept asking for endless postponements, leaving Mannino dangling. He spent 18 years in and out of court and has now been charged again.


He elaborates on this case in his letter below the article:

I cited the case of Calogero Mannino, a former deputy, senator and minister, who was tried and retried over a period of 18 years on the impossibly vague charge of ‘external association’ with organised crime (buy an espresso in a bar that pays protection money and you too are externally associated). When that failed, he was prosecuted again on a hyper-political version of the same charge by the magistrate Antonio Ingroia, who then left his post to form the ultra-left Rivoluzione Civile political party for the 2013 election, which attacked Mannino’s politics, and who was allowed to become a prosecutor again after his crushing defeat at the polls.

Luttwak's Italian interviews are a great source of quotes on Italian courts.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby sept79 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:59 pm

erasmus44 wrote:
LarryK wrote:Regarding extradition, I hope Amanda's lawyers aren't putting all their eggs in the double jeopardy basket. That aspect of the verdict would be consistent with Italian law and procedures. They need to focus where Italian law was broken, such as: Amanda not getting to meet with a lawyer until just before her first court date (including that abomination of an interrogation.) The ruling of the judgment of the Guede trial against her as being final when she wasn't represented there. The denial of the DNA data files to the defense team. How her "confession" was used after the Supreme Court said it couldn't be used in her criminal trial. How Guede avoided being cross-examined about his testimony against them. The media campaign against her, all visible to the jury. And so on.... Anything that can be used in an appeal to the ECHR can also be used to fight extradition. (And the Italian judges must know that the ECHR is looming over them if they deliver a final guilty verdict.)



I agree. I am not optimistic about the double jeopardy argument although I think it should be made. I think that the use of the Guede filings and the failure to turn over DNA data files will be perceived by most American lawyers as absolutely outrageous. These things both go to the reliability of the finding of guilt and make it much more likely that the finding was defective. If I were arguing it, I would use the double jeopardy argument as a platform to lay out the Hellmann verdict in detail before a US court so that they could see exactly why an Italian court found her innocent. If a US court thinks she is really innocent, it will be much more likely to find a procedural reason to deny extradition.



Maybe the retrial doesn't constitute double jeopardy, but it sure brings 'reasonable doubt' to the forefront since Nencini convicted with less evidence (sample 165 favorable to the defendants) than Hellmann acquitted.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:34 pm

One can easily argue that the trial was politically motivated. . . . .You can throw the kitchen sink at this trial and most of it will stick
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:43 pm

I just read some article that cited a case where the ISC sent it back 9 times.
This would be the easiest of all options.

This whole separation approach is something else that , for now, makes the cases even weaker against each person.
It does bring a interesting position though, convicting two people at the same time when the already weak case, becomes weaker when halved.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Clive Wismayer » Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:21 am

What will happen to this thread when whatever happens has happened?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Hans » Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:31 am

Clive Wismayer wrote:What will happen to this thread when whatever happens has happened?

Well, that depends on what happens. :)
He [Raffaele] is collateral damage in the unreasonable, irresponsible, and unrelenting scapegoating of the prosecution’s grotesque caricature that is “Foxy Knoxy”
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Purple » Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:41 am

I'd be very surprised if the verdict wasn't confirmed. Hopefully Amanda wouldn't be extradited, but I am worried for Raffaele.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:34 pm

I guess another possibility is that the case is sent to "United Sections" which sounds a little bit like what we in the United States call an en banc review. Again, I would tend to see this as a positive sign because it would indicate a recognition that the case is complex and not "open and shut."
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Mafiabuster » Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:40 pm

erasmus44 wrote:I guess another possibility is that the case is sent to "United Sections" which sounds a little bit like what we in the United States call an en banc review. Again, I would tend to see this as a positive sign because it would indicate a recognition that the case is complex and not "open and shut."


But it is an open and shut case. Rudy Guede murdered Meredith.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:04 pm

Mafiabuster wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:I guess another possibility is that the case is sent to "United Sections" which sounds a little bit like what we in the United States call an en banc review. Again, I would tend to see this as a positive sign because it would indicate a recognition that the case is complex and not "open and shut."


But it is an open and shut case. Rudy Guede murdered Meredith.


Did not help the Norfolk Four
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby kolrehs » Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:51 pm

My guess is that Amanda's conviction will be confirmed, but she will not be extradited.
Sollecito's case will go to United, then to a retrial, where he will be found not guilty.
In the meantime, Rudy will come out.
Amanda will go to ECHR.
ECHR will press on Italy.
Amanda's conviction will be overturned on technical grounds.
Rudy will vanish.
Case closed (after 12 years).
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:28 pm

kolrehs wrote:My guess is that Amanda's conviction will be confirmed, but she will not be extradited.
Sollecito's case will go to United, then to a retrial, where he will be found not guilty.
In the meantime, Rudy will come out.
Amanda will go to ECHR.
ECHR will press on Italy.
Amanda's conviction will be overturned on technical grounds.
Rudy will vanish.
Case closed (after 12 years).



This is plausible. I do not know if there is an argument to hold up AK's extradition decision pending a decision at ECHR. I also don't know if there is any "post conviction" relief available in Italy. I think it will be hard for them to rationalize different results for AK and RS but they have rationalized all sorts of other strange things.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Flipp » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:53 am

erasmus44 wrote:
kolrehs wrote:My guess is that Amanda's conviction will be confirmed, but she will not be extradited.
Sollecito's case will go to United, then to a retrial, where he will be found not guilty.
In the meantime, Rudy will come out.
Amanda will go to ECHR.
ECHR will press on Italy.
Amanda's conviction will be overturned on technical grounds.
Rudy will vanish.
Case closed (after 12 years).



This is plausible. I do not know if there is an argument to hold up AK's extradition decision pending a decision at ECHR. I also don't know if there is any "post conviction" relief available in Italy. I think it will be hard for them to rationalize different results for AK and RS but they have rationalized all sorts of other strange things.


An eventual extradition decision will most probably put on hold until all pending decisions by the ECHR are made. The case law seems to be clear about this:

http://echr.coe.int/Documents/FS_Interi ... es_ENG.pdf
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Kohntarkosz » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:23 am

Hello. Well… considering the various cases mentioned in the attached list, I sadly fear the ECHR would not take interim measures to suspend extradition. The court grants such requests when the applicant life is at stake, or if he might face torture or heavy prejudice of that kind. Though Capane is certainly not a nice and quiet place to stay, it might be hard for Amanda to convince the court she would undoubtedly face that sort of prejudice in Italy. :((:
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby sept79 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:56 am

erasmus44 wrote:
kolrehs wrote:My guess is that Amanda's conviction will be confirmed, but she will not be extradited.
Sollecito's case will go to United, then to a retrial, where he will be found not guilty.
In the meantime, Rudy will come out.
Amanda will go to ECHR.
ECHR will press on Italy.
Amanda's conviction will be overturned on technical grounds.
Rudy will vanish.
Case closed (after 12 years).



This is plausible. I do not know if there is an argument to hold up AK's extradition decision pending a decision at ECHR. I also don't know if there is any "post conviction" relief available in Italy. I think it will be hard for them to rationalize different results for AK and RS but they have rationalized all sorts of other strange things.



I can't imagine that extradition would even be considered if Raffaele were acquitted and Amanda convicted. This would reek of 'get the American' and be most unpopular within the U.S. I doubt if even Italy would have the chutzpah to move forward with an extradition request given this scenario.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:21 am

Kohntarkosz wrote:Hello. Well… considering the various cases mentioned in the attached list, I sadly fear the ECHR would not take interim measures to suspend extradition. The court grants such requests when the applicant life is at stake, or if he might face torture or heavy prejudice of that kind. Though Capane is certainly not a nice and quiet place to stay, it might be hard for Amanda to convince the court she would undoubtedly face that sort of prejudice in Italy. :((:



I tend to agree. The pendency of a case before the ECHR may, however, have the effect of persuading US authorities and/or courts to delay extradition pending resolution at the ECHR. I think that this is unlikely and I am generally pessimistic about the extradition fight, but it is yet another argument to be thrown into the pot in arguing against extradition.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:30 am

erasmus44 wrote:
Kohntarkosz wrote:Hello. Well… considering the various cases mentioned in the attached list, I sadly fear the ECHR would not take interim measures to suspend extradition. The court grants such requests when the applicant life is at stake, or if he might face torture or heavy prejudice of that kind. Though Capane is certainly not a nice and quiet place to stay, it might be hard for Amanda to convince the court she would undoubtedly face that sort of prejudice in Italy. :((:



I tend to agree. The pendency of a case before the ECHR may, however, have the effect of persuading US authorities and/or courts to delay extradition pending resolution at the ECHR. I think that this is unlikely and I am generally pessimistic about the extradition fight, but it is yet another argument to be thrown into the pot in arguing against extradition.


A way one might argue is very simply that if the Department of State supports extradition, they will have to explain why her constitutional protections do not apply.
They cannot just "Rubber stamp" it while they can in many cases.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:58 am

She doesn't have the right to a denial of extradition simply because the Italian proceeding did not provide all of the constitutional protections that she would have had if the case had gone forward in the United States. On the other hand, gross violations of those rights leading to a completely unreliable result (e.g., the use of the Guede factual findings in her case and the failure to provide DNA data files) may do the trick.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:08 pm

erasmus44 wrote:She doesn't have the right to a denial of extradition simply because the Italian proceeding did not provide all of the constitutional protections that she would have had if the case had gone forward in the United States. On the other hand, gross violations of those rights leading to a completely unreliable result (e.g., the use of the Guede factual findings in her case and the failure to provide DNA data files) may do the trick.


The issue is that the constitution is the highest law of the land. A treaty does not override the constitution. The Department of State in carrying out any Italy request still has to follow the US constitution. If it violates the US Costitution, they cannot do it. If you read most US federal court cases, they are not argued on the basis of the person being innocent but violating one or more constitutional grounds.

A good example of this is Derrick Tice, the only one of the Norfolk Four who has been exonerated. He was interrogated and was given a lie detector and they claimed he failed. He then both said that he did not want to talk anymore and that he wished to talk to a lawyer. The police continued the interrogation and he cracked. It was overturned a number of years later as a result of his request for a lawyer and invoking silence being ignored. It was not that the interogation was effective torture or that he was innocent that got him exonerated.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:23 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:She doesn't have the right to a denial of extradition simply because the Italian proceeding did not provide all of the constitutional protections that she would have had if the case had gone forward in the United States. On the other hand, gross violations of those rights leading to a completely unreliable result (e.g., the use of the Guede factual findings in her case and the failure to provide DNA data files) may do the trick.


The issue is that the constitution is the highest law of the land. A treaty does not override the constitution. The Department of State in carrying out any Italy request still has to follow the US constitution. If it violates the US Costitution, they cannot do it. If you read most US federal court cases, they are not argued on the basis of the person being innocent but violating one or more constitutional grounds.

A good example of this is Derrick Tice, the only one of the Norfolk Four who has been exonerated. He was interrogated and was given a lie detector and they claimed he failed. He then both said that he did not want to talk anymore and that he wished to talk to a lawyer. The police continued the interrogation and he cracked. It was overturned a number of years later as a result of his request for a lawyer and invoking silence being ignored. It was not that the interogation was effective torture or that he was innocent that got him exonerated.



Yes but that was a case in the United States. We cannot import all of our procedural protections into the legal systems of foreign countries any more than they can import theirs into our legal system.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:29 pm

erasmus44 wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:She doesn't have the right to a denial of extradition simply because the Italian proceeding did not provide all of the constitutional protections that she would have had if the case had gone forward in the United States. On the other hand, gross violations of those rights leading to a completely unreliable result (e.g., the use of the Guede factual findings in her case and the failure to provide DNA data files) may do the trick.


The issue is that the constitution is the highest law of the land. A treaty does not override the constitution. The Department of State in carrying out any Italy request still has to follow the US constitution. If it violates the US Costitution, they cannot do it. If you read most US federal court cases, they are not argued on the basis of the person being innocent but violating one or more constitutional grounds.

A good example of this is Derrick Tice, the only one of the Norfolk Four who has been exonerated. He was interrogated and was given a lie detector and they claimed he failed. He then both said that he did not want to talk anymore and that he wished to talk to a lawyer. The police continued the interrogation and he cracked. It was overturned a number of years later as a result of his request for a lawyer and invoking silence being ignored. It was not that the interogation was effective torture or that he was innocent that got him exonerated.



Yes but that was a case in the United States. We cannot import all of our procedural protections into the legal systems of foreign countries any more than they can import theirs into our legal system.


Amanda is physically in the United States however. . . . .You cannot be extradited for a crime which is not a crime in the US but if you are in that country, you can be tried for that crime.
The Department of State would be acting as Italy's agent (unless they kidnap her like Massad) and they have to follow US law when executing Italy's will and the Constitution is higher order law than any treaty.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:03 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:The issue is that the constitution is the highest law of the land. A treaty does not override the constitution.

I like where youre going with this......trump card = constitution
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Jay » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:26 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
Mafiabuster wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:I guess another possibility is that the case is sent to "United Sections" which sounds a little bit like what we in the United States call an en banc review. Again, I would tend to see this as a positive sign because it would indicate a recognition that the case is complex and not "open and shut."


But it is an open and shut case. Rudy Guede murdered Meredith.


Did not help the Norfolk Four


A step further to this is that nothing helped the Norfolk Four... DNA exonerated all but the one guy and that claimed sole responsibility for the crime and one of the other seven had an airtight alibi but was arrested and questioned anyway. There is obviously more to it than this but these two points stick out for me.

The point is that it's clear that there isn't enough evidence to wipe away reasonable doubt in AK and RS's case at the very least. We all know that there is a lot more of an argument for innocence than there is for guilt here but not being able to dispel reasonable doubt should carry some weight. It doesn't. Whatever they decide tomorrow is going to be based on anything but the facts.
Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is the truth." - Mahatma Gandhi
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Mafiabuster » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:31 pm

Jay wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
Mafiabuster wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:I guess another possibility is that the case is sent to "United Sections" which sounds a little bit like what we in the United States call an en banc review. Again, I would tend to see this as a positive sign because it would indicate a recognition that the case is complex and not "open and shut."


But it is an open and shut case. Rudy Guede murdered Meredith.


Did not help the Norfolk Four


A step further to this is that nothing helped the Norfolk Four... DNA exonerated all but the one guy and that claimed sole responsibility for the crime and one of the other seven had an airtight alibi but was arrested and questioned anyway. There is obviously more to it than this but these two points stick out for me.

The point is that it's clear that there isn't enough evidence to wipe away reasonable doubt in AK and RS's case at the very least. We all know that there is a lot more of an argument for innocence than there is for guilt here but not being able to dispel reasonable doubt should carry some weight. It doesn't. Whatever they decide tomorrow is going to be based on anything but the facts.


Yeah, but the norfolk four were a bunch of uneducated oiks.

Amanda is an eloquent, educated, talented writer who will one day have the career of a genius. Let Amanda speak to the state department, and THEN see her extradited.

Amanda is divine!
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:15 pm

Mafiabuster wrote:Yeah, but the norfolk four were a bunch of uneducated oiks.

Amanda is an eloquent, educated, talented writer who will one day have the career of a genius. Let Amanda speak to the state department, and THEN see her extradited.

Amanda is divine!


Erick Wilson and Derrick Tice are both quite intelligent men. Many people join the navy to get the money to afford college.
Many of the Norfolk Four also came from solid families (actually surprisingly solid) who helped them through the whole process.

Eric Wilson is a very intelligent speaker in this video and comes across as extremely humble.
https://vimeo.com/86046579
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:27 pm

When I think of an "open and shut" defense case, I generally think of a case in which the prosecution's evidence consists solely of one item (the Lobato case) which can easily be refuted or the defendant has a very solid alibi (the Lobato case, the Camm case, the Faria case). In these cases, it is relatively easy to prepare a 200 word "elevator speech" which explains why the defendant cannot be guilty. Whatever else you may say about the Kercher case, it is not open and shut in that sense. The prosecution claims to have multiple pieces of "evidence" each of which must at least be addressed. In that sense it is a complex case. It is also complex because the criminal investigation was botched. Just taking one example, one could write a 40 page essay on the time of death issue alone and still not cover it completely.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:28 am

If Raffaele is released today, I recall Maori planning to file charges on Rudy for blaming his crime on Raffaele. Anyone recall that?
It was in one of Franks articles after Hellman Acquittal, I think?

This morning Im just guessing they will kick Raffaele back for his own trial...
Then in that trial he will be free of this mess, because the focus and "goal post moving" of the charges and fictional theorys by the prosecution will be even more pathetic than they are now.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Clive Wismayer » Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:57 am

erasmus44 wrote:When I think of an "open and shut" defense case, I generally think of a case in which the prosecution's evidence consists solely of one item (the Lobato case) which can easily be refuted or the defendant has a very solid alibi (the Lobato case, the Camm case, the Faria case). In these cases, it is relatively easy to prepare a 200 word "elevator speech" which explains why the defendant cannot be guilty. Whatever else you may say about the Kercher case, it is not open and shut in that sense. The prosecution claims to have multiple pieces of "evidence" each of which must at least be addressed. In that sense it is a complex case. It is also complex because the criminal investigation was botched. Just taking one example, one could write a 40 page essay on the time of death issue alone and still not cover it completely.

I think it was complicated by lies. Lies enormously complicate litigation. The liar is careful to cover his tracks to avoid detection and to make the lie look as credible as possible. Untangling lies is usually extremely difficult especially in a system which threatens those who make accusations of impropriety against the authorities. If they are acquitted, I hope the real investigation will start and that Mignini, Stefanoni and the bent cops will be investigated and prosecuted.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Jay » Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:31 am

Desert Fox wrote:
Mafiabuster wrote:Yeah, but the norfolk four were a bunch of uneducated oiks.

Amanda is an eloquent, educated, talented writer who will one day have the career of a genius. Let Amanda speak to the state department, and THEN see her extradited.

Amanda is divine!


Erick Wilson and Derrick Tice are both quite intelligent men. Many people join the navy to get the money to afford college.
Many of the Norfolk Four also came from solid families (actually surprisingly solid) who helped them through the whole process.

Eric Wilson is a very intelligent speaker in this video and comes across as extremely humble.
https://vimeo.com/86046579


While I agree that Amanda all the things that you mentioned, Mafiabuster, I have to agree with Desert Fox regarding Eric Wilson and Derrick Tice. The four suffered the same enormous initial problem which was an over zealous, controlling member of the law that bit hard and wouldn't let go.
Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is the truth." - Mahatma Gandhi
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Zrausch » Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:47 pm

Props to the optimists among us (not me)

<Cheers>
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:58 pm

Now other people can start laying some charges....the table is turned.

Maori files for Calunnia against Rudy Guede to add another 6yrs....

then Girgha files against Rudy Guede for Calunnia....add another 6yrs....

for starters....
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:06 pm

Wow!!!!! I am wiping the egg off my face. Acquittal was - in my opinion - the least likely alternative at 10%. Double Wow! My faith in humanity and the Italian justice system is restored.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:07 pm

struoc wrote:Now other people can start laying some charges....the table is turned.

Maori files for Calunnia against Rudy Guede to add another 6yrs....

then Girgha files against Rudy Guede for Calunnia....add another 6yrs....

for starters....


I am sorry, I just do not like the charge of Calunnia even against somebody who is guilty.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:37 pm

Another thought - will this have any impact on the whole Monster of Florence/Narducci controversy?????
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Desert Fox » Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:44 pm

erasmus44 wrote:Another thought - will this have any impact on the whole Monster of Florence/Narducci controversy?????


I have a feeling a certain civil lawsuit is going to crash and burn as well . . . . Can you counter sue in Italy?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:22 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
struoc wrote:Now other people can start laying some charges....the table is turned.

Maori files for Calunnia against Rudy Guede to add another 6yrs....

then Girgha files against Rudy Guede for Calunnia....add another 6yrs....

for starters....


I am sorry, I just do not like the charge of Calunnia even against somebody who is guilty.


No need to be sorry today! I get the other side of that too, as if they coerced Rudy to blame Amanda and Raffaele, just like they were using on Raffaele and Amanda in the interrogation.

It could be something though , to get Rudy to confess what happened for the KErchers sake.

"12 more years Rudy, or you tell the whole truth this time." I think Rudy could explain all the mystery away for the Kerchers. The footproint on the bathmat, the broken window, the rock through the glass. Wheres the knife?

There is always something about the truth, which Rudy holds still, that could give the Kerchers the chance to drop all the thoughts of this trial against Amanda and Raffaele.

I would still wish for this truth, how to get it? thats another issue for someone smarter than I am.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby kolrehs » Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:06 pm

I rarely get this feeling
of joy for being so wrong :)
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

This may be premature but there are still a bunch of legal proceedings that may go forward. 1. libel cases against AK and RS for their books (likely to be weak now), 2. possible damages case for AK and RS against the government for false imprisonment (AK's sentence was only 3 years but she was in jail for 4 and I guess RS could have a case for the entire 4 years he was in), 3. any cases connected with Narducci??? (again as indicated above not sure how or whether they are affected by the result in this case, 4. civil damage action by the Kerchers (not sure if that is resolved by this case since they were parties but a few on the guilder websites are suggesting this), 5. Lumumba's damage case (he claims he hasn't been paid).
And I am not absolutely sure we are closing the books on this crime. As I have indicated, I think that RG did it alone but I am not absolutely certain of this and he may have had accomplices. Conceivably, the police could reopen and look at some other possibilities although the trail is cold.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Clive Wismayer » Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:38 pm

I am sticking my neck out, I realise, but I have a hunch they will be totally acquitted :mrgreen:
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Bill Williams » Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:03 pm

kolrehs wrote:I rarely get this feeling
of joy for being so wrong :)

It is official that I have called every verdict..... exactly wrong.

I said to my wife, "I'm now stuck for something meaningful to post."

She replied, "Why start now?"
    “The only way I can pay back for what fate and society have handed me is to try, in minor totally useless ways, to make an angry sound against injustice.”
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Alex_K » Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:22 am

Bill Williams wrote:
kolrehs wrote:I rarely get this feeling
of joy for being so wrong :)

It is official that I have called every verdict..... exactly wrong.

I said to my wife, "I'm now stuck for something meaningful to post."

She replied, "Why start now?"


Like Bill, I got this one completely wrong, and like kolrehs, I am glad I did.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby LarryK » Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:21 am

I actually think that 10% chance for the final acquittal was a reasonable estimate a priori. Now I'm wondering whether AK and RS just got a really unfortunate panel at the ISC for their first trial there 2 years ago, and the current panel was more representative. I hope we learn the names of the judges who had the courage to do what was right. (On the other hand, I said earlier that they knew they had the ECHR looming over them if they upheld the convictions....)

We should continue to follow this case through the ISC motivation report and through Amanda's proceedings at the ECHR regarding her slander conviction. Raffaele can sue the state for damages immediately; Amanda will probably wait until after the ECHR ruling, which should also make Lumumba's damage claim moot. If Rudy is charged with calunnia that could simply restore to his prison term some of the years that he had removed from it by his "cooperation". On the other hand, if he comes clean now it may help the Kerchers accept the final outcome for AK and RS.

I hope to read about Amanda's and Raffaele's weddings in the next year!

Finally, I give a shout out to Jay (I think) for his article several months ago which correctly predicted this outcome, although based on politics not simple facts. Frank Sfarzo also got it right.
The brain is not configured in a way that makes obedience through logical, language-based propositions possible during distress and suffering. -- James Wilder, "Neurotheology and the Life Model"
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby erasmus44 » Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:57 am

LarryK wrote:I actually think that 10% chance for the final acquittal was a reasonable estimate a priori. Now I'm wondering whether AK and RS just got a really unfortunate panel at the ISC for their first trial there 2 years ago, and the current panel was more representative. I hope we learn the names of the judges who had the courage to do what was right. (On the other hand, I said earlier that they knew they had the ECHR looming over them if they upheld the convictions....)

We should continue to follow this case through the ISC motivation report and through Amanda's proceedings at the ECHR regarding her slander conviction. Raffaele can sue the state for damages immediately; Amanda will probably wait until after the ECHR ruling, which should also make Lumumba's damage claim moot. If Rudy is charged with calunnia that could simply restore to his prison term some of the years that he had removed from it by his "cooperation". On the other hand, if he comes clean now it may help the Kerchers accept the final outcome for AK and RS.

I hope to read about Amanda's and Raffaele's weddings in the next year!

Finally, I give a shout out to Jay (I think) for his article several months ago which correctly predicted this outcome, although based on politics not simple facts. Frank Sfarzo also got it right.



Thanks. I came up with the 10% but at least I predicted that the chance of a clean order affirming Nencini was only 45%. Some on the prosecution side (I think, Maresca) argued that this case has dragged on too long and should be finally resolved - assuming that this would increase the chance of an order affirming conviction. In that sense at least, they got what they wanted. They had obviously handicapped it way wrong.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby Bill Williams » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:53 pm

erasmus44 wrote:Because we don't really know, all we can do is assign probabilities to various outcomes. So - here goes.
1. AK and RS both convicted and affirmed by SC. Extradition sought and obtained for AK. They both serve sentences in Italian prison. 20%
2. Same as #1 but AK serves sentence in US prison. 5%
3. Same as #1 but after Italy seeks extradition, the US refuses it. 5%
4. Same as #1 but Italy never seeks extradition. 5%
5. Same as #1, but somehow the result is reversed at a higher level (ECHR, rehearing, etc.). 10%
6. SC outright reverses the convictions and ends the case. 10%
7. SC remands the case for further proceedings and AK and RS are ultimately acquitted. 35%
8. SC remands the case and AK and RS are ultimately convicted. 10%

I am not dealing with the prospect that there are different verdicts for AK and RS because I think that, while theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely. If you sum up the probabilities, I am up in the air about the next step - 45% chance of an affirmation of the conviction, 10% chance of an outright acquittal and 45% chance of a remand. If it is remanded, I think that the likelihood of ultimate acquittal gets pretty high.

I knew it would be #6 all along.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby pmop57 » Sun Mar 29, 2015 4:05 am

Bill Williams wrote:
erasmus44 wrote:Because we don't really know, all we can do is assign probabilities to various outcomes. So - here goes.
1. AK and RS both convicted and affirmed by SC. Extradition sought and obtained for AK. They both serve sentences in Italian prison. 20%
2. Same as #1 but AK serves sentence in US prison. 5%
3. Same as #1 but after Italy seeks extradition, the US refuses it. 5%
4. Same as #1 but Italy never seeks extradition. 5%
5. Same as #1, but somehow the result is reversed at a higher level (ECHR, rehearing, etc.). 10%
6. SC outright reverses the convictions and ends the case. 10%
7. SC remands the case for further proceedings and AK and RS are ultimately acquitted. 35%
8. SC remands the case and AK and RS are ultimately convicted. 10%

I am not dealing with the prospect that there are different verdicts for AK and RS because I think that, while theoretically possible, it is extremely unlikely. If you sum up the probabilities, I am up in the air about the next step - 45% chance of an affirmation of the conviction, 10% chance of an outright acquittal and 45% chance of a remand. If it is remanded, I think that the likelihood of ultimate acquittal gets pretty high.

I knew it would be #6 all along.

WOW
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby jane » Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:14 am

If the semen stain is now tested and identified as belonging to Guede, could he now be charged with rape? His stories about what happened are now proven false because Amanda and Raffaele have been exonerated.

At least, he should be charge with perjury (is that the same as calumnia?) so that several years can be added to his sentence.

Is there any way that he can be held responsible for what he and he alone did to Meredith?
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby struoc » Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:21 pm

Interesting question...

I cant imagine the exhaustion, the joy and the recovery time....but does one keep pursuing the legal issues?

How much can a person give in something like this case, to continue on pursuing legal issues, so it doesnt happen again with these same reporters, or prosecutors, or forensic liars like Stefonani?

Does Migninni go without any discipline, onward to his next insane case on someone else?

Douglas Preston, then Amanda and Raffaele, and <enter next victims name here>.

Or is it as Frank Sfarzo said time is the key, maybe soon or even later, a polizia of the interrogation will spill the beans and tell the truth about the Nov 5/6 interrogation and inner-workings of the station in Perugia. Four hardrives burnt up? really? by "experts"? really? who is to believe this...not me. Ive changed hardrives with no training and have never burnt one up...let alone four.

Migninni has proven to be unable to do things right, more than once. He should go home, or take a desk job where he cant ruin lives.
Frank said the polizia gave him ill information, Napoleoni, Rita, Giobbi feeding Migninnis mind?

I can almost hear the paper shredders from here....the emails being deleted....the interrogation recordings already burned to a crisp since the Big Announcement.
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Re: What Do You Think Will Happen???

Postby florence » Wed Apr 08, 2015 3:53 pm

Alex_K wrote:
Lince wrote:My feeling is that (50%) SC rubber-stamps the conviction, a prolonged legal battle for extradition starts, which is, hopefully, interrupted by a reversal at higher level (ECHR?). Or, (50%) SC tries to avoid responsibility by returning the case for a new trial, and all this insanity is perpetuated further. What is the longest case tried and retried in Italy?


Edward Luttwak wrote in The London Review of Books (probably paywalled):

...almost anyone can be accused of ‘association’, including the slew of former Christian Democrat politicians who have been charged and prosecuted. The most prominent Sicilian politician, the former minister (multiple times) and later senator Calogero Mannino was tried several times on that charge before his case finally reached the country’s highest court, the Cassazione. Each time he was found innocent the prosecutors appealed, and then kept asking for endless postponements, leaving Mannino dangling. He spent 18 years in and out of court and has now been charged again.


He elaborates on this case in his letter below the article:

I cited the case of Calogero Mannino, a former deputy, senator and minister, who was tried and retried over a period of 18 years on the impossibly vague charge of ‘external association’ with organised crime (buy an espresso in a bar that pays protection money and you too are externally associated). When that failed, he was prosecuted again on a hyper-political version of the same charge by the magistrate Antonio Ingroia, who then left his post to form the ultra-left Rivoluzione Civile political party for the 2013 election, which attacked Mannino’s politics, and who was allowed to become a prosecutor again after his crushing defeat at the polls.

Luttwak's Italian interviews are a great source of quotes on Italian courts.


This review by Luttwak in the LRB is of "Mafia Republic" by John Dickie. I can't access the whole of the review, but having just read "Mafia Republic" I think Luttwak is being extremely unfair, and I also find his trivialising of the maxi-trial offensive, considering the prosecutors Falcone and Borsellino were blown up for pushing these trials.

All this stuff about "outsiders who cannot understand the ways of us Sicilians" is also annoying, as is Luttwak's attempt to make what he insists on calling "l’onorata società" (i.e. the mafia) seem just like a local community service that sorted petty criminals out. Except, also according to him, it's a mysterious super-elite that can never be caught, so there's no point trying. In fact, anyone accused of membership in the honoured society is apparently innocent. They might have killed a few people, but they're not that bad, and they're not members of the mafia, because it doesn't exist. In Luttwak's view, that is.

I think it's precisely this "localist" attitude that Luttwak defends of "who are these outsiders to tell us what to do? Here in Sicily, in Perugia, we have our own ways and our own honoured men, who are men of high social standing. If some evil happens then we will sort it out our own way, not the silly way of the central state rules and the demands of the effeminate government. If we need to break some rules to make sure that honour is maintained and the upstarts are kept in line, then we will" that led to the arrest of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for a crime they did not commit.

Dickie's book, despite being panned by Luttwak, is actually fairly convincing on how the mafia developed, its connections with local politicians and important local individuals, how local politicians and central government have had to do business (or, at least believed they had to to business) with the mafia if they were going to form governments and stay in power. It shows the gaps and slippages within an apparently western state based on democracy and the rule of law that grew out of an amalgamation of completely different regions and traditions, some of which fiercely safeguarded local vested interests. It also demonstrates the "everydayness" of this kind of criminality, how its patterns and behaviours have become interwoven with the way things are, so it becomes difficult to do normal things without operating within those patterns, hence they are constantly reproduced.

I'd give Dickie a try. His case studies can drag at times, but I found it gave me a better insight into Italy's problems than Luttwak.
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